Peripheral markets continue to fall, over 60% of private equity is full of confidence in A shares

Peripheral markets continue to fall, over 60% of private equity is full of confidence in A shares

For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!

  Source: Daily Economic News Every editor Yang Jian every editor He Jianling The peripheral market plummeted for two consecutive days. The stock market’s Shanghai index experienced a thrilling “V-shaped” reversal on February 25, and fell slightly after the daytime shock on February 26.

In the turbulent market in the last two trading days, private equity fund managers carried out a series of tense operations such as increasing, reducing, and adjusting positions.

  At present, the most worrying issue for investors is whether A shares will follow the plunge.

How much room is there for technology stocks that are rising too fast?

  ”Daily Economic News” reporters noted that the results of a questionnaire showed that 63.

64% of private equity believes that the A-share market can withstand the continued plunge of the peripheral market; once it falls, there are 72.

73% of private placements consider it a good opportunity.

For technology stocks that have already increased, 81.

82% of private placements do not support participating now.

  A shares may emerge from the independent market for nearly two days, and the long-term stock market has ushered in a continuous slump. The A shares on February 26 may not be as good as February 25.

  On February 26, the market hotspots in the early stages of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets ebb across the board. PCB, photoresist, gallium nitride, HIT batteries, and domestic chips led the decline.

Next, will A shares follow the trend of the external market?

The latest private equity emptying net survey results for private equity show that 63.

64% of private equity believes that the A-share market can withstand the continued plunge of the peripheral market; once it falls, there are 72.

73% of private placements consider it a good opportunity.

This year, technology stocks have soared, 100-yuan stocks have continued to emerge, and they have accumulated higher gains of 81.

82% of private placements do not support participating in technology stocks now.

  Li Bao, general manager of Qianhai Qianyuan Capital Co., Ltd. in Shenzhen, said that the plunge in the external market was mainly due to the release of panic caused by the spread of the epidemic, which may have some impact on the domestic capital market, but the impact should be relatively limited.

On the whole, A-shares will still keep up with the external market trends, because now the industry chain and capital have occurred, but the A-shares follow-up rate will not be too great, and has now come out of its own pace.

  Xingshi Investment’s chief research official Lei believes that the A-shares may step out of the independent market gradually includes two aspects. The first is that the initial spread of the Chinese epidemic is also initially controlled. Under the actual internal response, it is already in a good direction.Development, resumed work and production started in an orderly manner.

Accumulation of various recent counter-cyclical adjustment policies has continued to be introduced, and the overall performance of the stocks is still relatively superimposed. Secondly, the panic caused by the domestic epidemic situation has been released in a one-off on the first day after the opening of the Spring Festival, and more than 3,700 stocks on that dayThere were more than 3,100 limit stops, and the Shanghai index fell by nearly 7%. It can be said that the degree of response to the epidemic is much better than the current peripheral market.

Therefore, the current sharp decline in the external market, the impact of A shares should be much smaller.

  Zhai Jingyong, general manager of Rongshu Investment, said that from the perspective of the epidemic, the domestic epidemic has been effectively controlled, and pessimistic expectations have been reflected in the market.

As the domestic epidemic gradually subsides, more and more enterprises will resume work and production. The impact of the epidemic on the domestic economy will become less and less, and economic activity will enter a recovery and rising period.

In response to the impact of the epidemic, the government has proposed a series of economic hedging policies, which stabilized the confidence of market investors.

  Zhai Jingyong also believes that some high-quality assets are better investment opportunities if they follow the market decline.

From another perspective, this is also the advantages and disadvantages of related industries. Through this incident, some companies with poor anti-risk capabilities that do not become core competitiveness will be eliminated. After the epidemic is over, the concentration of various industries will further increase., But in favor of leading companies.

  Hou Yanjun, Houshi Tiancheng, told reporters that the plunge in the external market and the previous decline in A shares were due to the impact of the epidemic.

Because A shares have experienced a decline before, and gradually release liquidity after the holiday, this round of upswing is basically the result of liquidity.

Before the Spring Festival, the market was eager to move, just because the sudden outbreak caused the market to come to an abrupt halt.

Because market liquidity is gradually loosening, both the fundamental analysis and technical analysis are currently ineffective. The best way to deal with it now is to “wave when the waves come,” but you need to know something.

After the surge in technology stocks, according to rational thinking, it is definitely not the time to intervene, but given the abundant liquidity, it is difficult to say how the market will go.

  The prospects for the growth of technology stocks are good. Some investors ask, is the technology sector that has accumulated higher gains still suitable for participation?

  Rongshu Investment Zhai Jingyong believes that the three major directions of new energy, 5G applications and semiconductor industry investment opportunities will continue to become the main investment line of the market.

The trend of automotive electrification is accelerating. Is the new energy automobile industry the future 5?
One of the most promising industries in the past 10 years; the transformation into 5G business has accelerated, 5G has low latency, high bandwidth, and large connections will drive subversive changes in the C- and B-end industries; the country provides alternatives for the development of the semiconductor industryIndustry policy and financial support, the domestic replacement of software and hardware in various industries in the future will become a deterministic opportunity for China’s technology industry.

Although individual stocks in these fields have accumulated growth in the short term, the long-term growth prospects are huge, and the continued growth of future performance will gradually digest the existing overvaluation.
  Fang Lei also said that at present, the absolute estimates of some local sub-industries in growth stocks are indeed high, and there may be pressure for periodic breaks in the short term, but the growth stocks are still in a reasonable range.
At least three points are relatively certain at present. First, in order to hedge the short-term impact of the epidemic on the macro economy, monetary policy and fiscal policy will continue to work. Second, market liquidity will remain reasonably adequate.Sexual trends.

Therefore, although some popular sub-sectors currently have lower performance-to-price ratios compared to consumer and cyclic categories, the trend of growth stocks in the entire technology category should still be upward.

  Comparing the estimates of growth stocks and large-cap stocks, Fang Lei believes that the current estimates of growth stocks are indeed higher than large-cap stocks.

But from a global perspective, because of their growth, investors think that the estimated tolerance will be higher.

In the medium to long term, the economic growth of developing countries has shifted from a high speed to more expected development, and further industrial transformation and upgrading in the future will be a deterministic trend.

In general, relying on the internal demand market to expand the huge support of engineers’ dividends and financial, industrial and other policies, the gradual industrial transformation and upgrading have been accelerated.

Therefore, the question of whether there is room for future growth stocks is very clear. With the start of a new round of technology cycles, the long-term trend of growth stocks should be relatively certain.

  And Beijing Heju Investment pointed out that technology stocks have fully blossomed in the past years, and many sub-sectors have seen relatively large increases.

“We generally feel that technology stocks will still be in a relatively active stage in 2020, especially in the first half of the year.

Standing higher, we feel that behind its prosperity is the overlap of the triple cycle, which is also the essence behind this round of technology stocks.

The first cycle is the technology cycle, with the application of communication technology as the core. In 2020, we are in the new stage of 5G transition to consumer-level segmented applications; the second cycle is the capital cycle, and the technology field is currently in theIn the history of a very rich financing environment, the investment and financing needs of the technology industry are also very active. It is estimated that the environment has re-entered a new upward cycle, pulling from the secondary market to the primary market chain. The third cycle is the economic cycle.Stocks have their own independent characteristics of technological iterations. Therefore, in the context of a macroeconomic downturn, the capital market may instead be willing to give higher valuations to assets that do not follow the macroeconomic cycle from the perspective of multi-asset allocation.

Under the overlapping of the above three cycles, we feel that the magnitude and time span of the current round of boom in technology stocks may be relatively rare in history.

A golden pit opportunity for A shares?

  After a sharp decline on February 3, the market rebounded strongly. During this period, the Shanghai index rose by nearly 400 points, and the GEM index continued to hit new highs.

Looking back at the decline on February 3, it is clear that the so-called “golden pit” investment opportunity has formed.

So, will the current decline in the external market also be a “golden pit” opportunity for A shares?

  In this regard, Li Bao believes that as long as the index is relatively low and there are short-term panic incidents, often accompanied by liquidity depletion, but these will not affect the long-term estimation and operation of the company. This is the “golden pit”Opportunity.

  ”The so-called ‘buy at the low point and sell at the high point’ is an ideal state, but it is not the goal we are pursuing,” said Lei, the chief research official of Xingshi Investment.

The reasonable approach is not to panic and buy in relatively low areas, and not to sell enthusiastically in relatively high positions.

The position of buying and selling should be an area, not a certain point.

From a medium-to-long-term perspective, with the continuous acceleration of industrial transformation and upgrading and the continuous advancement of capital market reforms, the future trend of A-shares is bound to continue to improve.

In addition, from the perspective of estimation, the overall estimated level of A-shares is still in a reasonably low area. The current overall estimate of Wanda A is only 18.

24, which is only at a historically high 32.

The 1% quantile is still in a relatively low range.

What needs to be reminded is that when you encounter risks, you must have a bottom-line thinking, and you cannot blindly fall; similarly, you must remain vigilant when the market mood is frenetic.

Chen Xuan, general manager of Feixuan Brothers Investment, told reporters that the expansion of the epidemic has caused a continuous plunge in peripheral stock markets. The actual impact on the entire market is relatively limited, which is a panic selling.

Relative to A shares, most of the peripheral stock markets are at estimated high levels, and A shares are relatively low in value.

The recent 杭州桑拿 epidemic situation in China is basically controllable, companies have begun to resume work and resume production, the economy is warming up, panic has gradually disappeared, and the government has quickly adopted alternatives such as corporate tax cuts. The emergence of various policy “combination punches” has obviously benefited the A-share market.A shares will go out of independent market.

With the plunge in the external stock market, A-shares will have a relatively higher opportunity, and it is also a rare opportunity to open a position.

  Bao Yin Investment pointed out that the recent decline in U.S. stocks was mainly due to market concerns over the global outbreak of new crown pneumonia.

Although the epidemic situation in China has gradually been effectively controlled, the number of pneumonia cases in other countries is rising.

If the epidemic spreads further in the relevant countries, it may lead to economic recession in these countries, and it will also have a conductive effect on the global economy.

So whether the follow-up market can stop falling, we need to focus on whether the epidemic can be controlled globally.

If the epidemic is effectively controlled, the market will slowly recover; if it continues to spread, the stock market may continue to fall.

  How can you grasp the golden pit that has been smashed?

Guoyuan Securities believes that it is necessary to look at the estimated level of the entire market.

First of all, the 500-share surplus of the A-share CSI under the shock of the outbreak was reorganized26.

36 times, which belongs to the historical low and medium level. Secondly, look at the turnover rate or trading volume. If the turnover rate is at the low level in the past 3 years, it means that the market is still the nature of the structural market. The third is to see the reverse indicator.The equity risk premium indicator is very useful. The rise of this indicator indicates that investors’ risk appetite is decreasing, unwilling to participate in the stock market, and more willing to pursue low-risk products such as wealth management and fixed income. As a result, the stock market fell out of the “end of the stage”.

vice versa.