Kao shares (603007): overall performance in line with expectations

Kao shares (603007): overall performance in line with expectations
Matters: The company releases three quarterly reports, and its operating income from January to September 7.94 ppm, a decrease of 14 per year.30%; Net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company is 0.77 trillion, down 21 a year.63%; budget benefit 0.22 yuan, down 12 every year.00%. The company’s performance was in line with expectations and was significantly better than the garden industry.Operating revenue of the company on January 9, 20197.94 ppm, a decrease of 14 per year.30%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company is 0.77 trillion, down 21 a year.63%, the company’s performance is in line with expectations.Since 2018, the state has increased the regulation and rectification of PPP projects, and at the same time, banks have shrunk the financing scale of PPP projects. The garden industry has been hit first, and the performance of industry leaders has undergone serious changes, and even substitution has occurred.As a garden company that has been a listed company for only 3 years, although the company’s performance has decreased, it is still relatively high compared to the industry. The resistance rate is relatively stable and profitability has improved.As of the end of September 2019, the company’s asset-liability ratio was 65.98%, an increase of 0 from the end of 2018.The 13 singles remain relatively stable as a whole. Compared with the industry leaders, the company’s asset-liability ratio is relatively inaccurate.The company’s profitability has improved. The company’s gross profit margin was 28 on January 9, 2019.46%, a slight decrease of 0 from 2018.52 averages; net margin 9.78%, a slight increase of 0 from 2018.83 units.In 2018, the company increased its collection efforts, and its cash flow improved significantly. The annual net cash flow from operating activities was 145.56 million yuan. From January to September 2019, the company’s net cash flow from operating activities was -21.597 million yuan. It is expected that the cash flow in the fourth quarter will be significant.着 improvement. The company’s order reserves are good, and the prospects of overweight cultural tourism are expected.The amount of new projects signed by the company in 2018 was 52.34 trillion, of which the contracted amount of eco-tourism landscape projects is 22.5 billion, accounting for about 43%.  The amount of new projects signed by the company on January 9, 20194.69 trillion, eco-tourism landscape 0.1.8 billion.  The company has a good order reserve, and the fractures support the company’s business development needs in the next few years.At the same time, according to the announcement and undertaking projects, the company will increase the ecological cultural tourism business, especially the red tourism project.  In 2018, the company successfully 深圳桑拿网 obtained the PPP project of beautiful rural construction in Shaoshan City, and the Qingfeng Red Single-Guide Cultural Tourism Complex PPP project. By participating in the PPP project to overweight characteristic towns, red tourism and other cultural tourism projects, cultural tourism is expected to be the company’s future development.An industry direction. Actively introduce strategic investors to reduce and resolve the pledge risk of controlling shareholders.The company issued an announcement on exempting the company’s controlling shareholders and actual controllers from stock lock-up commitments. Kao Group and Mr. Xiao Guoqiang intend to apply for waiver of stock lock-up commitments-if the company’s shares are held within two years after the lock-up period expires, the amount of annual reduction willMore than 5% of total 杭州夜网论坛 equity.If this exemption is approved by the authorized shareholders’ meeting, the company will accelerate the expansion of the strategic investor plan, reduce the risk of pledge of stocks of listed companies, and help optimize the shareholder structure, thus the company’s medium and long-term development. Estimates and profit forecast: Due to the country’s rectification of PPP projects and the impact of the garden industry, it may lead to the project progress in 2019 and the delay in the recognition of some project revenues. Therefore, we adjust the company’s performance forecast to predict the company’s operating income in 2019-2021.They are 10.9 billion, 13.6.2 billion, 16.63 ppm, short-term growth rate is -13.8%, 25.0% and 22.1%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company is 0.8 billion, 1.30,000 yuan, 1.29ppm, the annual growth rate is -20.4%, 29.7%, 24.7%.The initial gain is zero.24 yuan, 0.31 yuan, 0.38 yuan, dynamic PE is 29.0 times, 22.4 times, 17.9 times, PB is 2 respectively.0 times, 1.8 times, 1.7 times.The company is actively transforming into an eco-tourism business. At the same time, it has expanded its efforts to introduce war investment, and the company has sufficient order reserves, and future business development is expected.Maintain the company’s “Overweight-A” rating and target price of 8.9 yuan. Risk warning: performance is not up to expectations, war investment transfer is slow, PPP policy changes, financing costs and other risks.