Prosperity rebounds, refinancing catalyzes GEM leader expected to be strong Hengqiang
Original title: Booming, new rules for refinancing catalyze the growth of GEM’s leading companies. Hengqiang Source: Many professional investors from Red Magazine Finance stated in an interview with Red Weekly that the current liquidity environment of A sharesThe market size and investor structure have been significantly different from 2014 and 2015. The market will no longer show no difference. The homogeneity will generally increase. Only leading companies with excellent profitability and stable growth willContinue to get out of the long bull market.
As the technology industry cycle starts to rise, performance expectations exceed expectations, new rules for refinancing are released, and the performance of GEM companies after the holiday is extremely hot. Not only did the index break through the 2000 point mark, but it also hit a new high since 2017.
Regarding the current GEM, many professional investors said in an interview with the “Red Weekly” reporter that the current A-share liquidity environment, market size, and investor structure have all been significantly higher in 2014 and 2015.Different, the market will no longer show no difference, the homogeneous general rise, but leading companies with outstanding profitability and stable growth will continue to out of the long bull market.
The trend of the GEM has risen in the short term, and the long-term differentiation has been affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic. On the first trading day of the Year, the A-share market staged a limit of 1,000 shares and the Shanghai Stock Index plummeted.
72%, the GEM Index fell 6.
However, the consequent emergency policy came out, and the market started to rebound on the second trading day from February 4.
As of February 20, compared with the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, it rose by 10 in 13 trading days.
The GEM Index rose 32%.
77%, becoming the best performer among the major indexes in the market.
Statistics show that more than 773 companies out of 798 GEM companies have shown a growth trend since February 4, of which 616 companies have outperformed the broader market, accounting for 77 of all companies in the sector.
According to the statistics of all A shares, there were 2025 companies outperforming the market in the current period, accounting for 53.
From the comparison of data, the performance of GEM companies after the holiday was obviously strong.
In fact, if we lengthen the statistical time, we can find that since the GEM index on June 10, 2019, it has created 1410.
After the 57-point low, the index performance has begun to outperform the overall market.
As of February 20 this year, the GEM index has gradually increased by 54 in 8 months.
42%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose only during the same period.
Regarding the reasons for the outstanding overall performance of this round of GEM, Liu Yue, the investment director of Guangdong Chaojin Investment Fund, believes that there are three reasons: “First, driven by the opening of the science and technology board, the rise of the technology industry cycle, and the continuous expansion of core technology companies了整个指数的上扬；第二，经过2018年巨额资产减值后，创业板公司业绩利空出尽，很多公司在2019年‘轻装上阵’，年度业绩预期大幅增长，由此获得了资金的认可；Thirdly, benefiting from the recent refinancing regulations introduced, it has fully relaxed the refinancing requirements for the GEM, eased funding pressure, and expected the liquidity of the sector to increase, and the market has given great recognition to the GEM. ”
”It is undeniable that the GEM will stage a relatively buoyant market in the short term, and the introduction of new rules for refinancing has made many investors bullish.
“Beijing Gray Asset General Manager Zhang Kexing affirmed the performance of the GEM in the near future, and thought that the general market will rise in the short term, but at the same time he also said,” With the passage of time, the trend of individual stocks will still diverge because of the current flow of A shares.The sexual environment, market size, and investor structure have all been significantly different from 2014 and 2015. GEM will no longer show no difference. The homogeneity will generally increase, and it is likely that a structure will appear in the future.Trend of differentiation. ”
Liu Yue also believes that with the gradual change, there will be some differentiation within the GEM company, and the estimates of high-quality leading companies with strong profitability and stable growth will move up, while companies with slow growth or unsustainable growth will once the index stopsAfter the upside or emergence, once it is killed quickly, it may even reach a new low.
In fact, it is not difficult to find out that the GEM companies that have performed well in the recent market are mostly medical and biological leading companies with large market capitalization and excellent fundamentals, such as technology, artificial intelligence, big data, and Tesla concepts.In the Ningde era, Mindray Medical, Zhifei Biological, Kangtai Biological, Lansi Technology, Eternal Lithium Energy, Mango Super Media, etc., and some of the companies supported by the fundamentals performed mediocrely.
GEM’s 2019 performance or presenting the best historical performance is relatively scarce compared to the official annual report. There are not a few companies that disclose the performance forecast in advance, especially the GEM companies. In addition to the official annual reports that have been announced, Anyang Zhidian and Jucan Optoelectronics,There were 793 companies that announced the annual report performance notice in advance, and the disclosure proportion accounted for 99 of the GEM companies.
Looking back at the performance of GEM companies in 2018, due to asset impairment and the concentration of goodwill impairments, the overall performance of GEM companies has replaced 65.
With an absolute difference of 77%, it became the sector with the worst decline in A-share market performance that year.
Now re-analyzing the 2019 performance forecast of GEM companies, you can find that benefiting from the huge cleanup of the “burdens”
in 2018, the overall performance of GEM companies in 2019 will take a qualitative leap.
Based on the forecast of net profit announced in the performance forecast and the actual value statistics of 2018, the overall net profit growth range of the GEM in 2019 is about 34.
33%, is likely to create the best overall net profit growth since the launch in 2009.
The GEM company’s 2019 annual performance has achieved substantial growth, but there is no suspense, but the sudden new crown pneumonia epidemic in 2020 still seriously affects the post-holiday business utilization rate, which allows many investors to realize the first quarter results of some companies.Significant impact.
Liu Yue said that through recent research, it was found that a large number of companies with small market capitalization will be affected by disruptions in the first quarter of this year, and serious capital accidents will occur. However, for leading companies in various industries, the pressure is relatively small.The competitive advantage allows it to gradually phase out a large number of eliminated companies after the epidemic is over, but it is more conducive to its future growth.
“Although the short-term performance pressure is possible, it is also a good investment opportunity.
“Liu Yue believes that the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic has accelerated the reshuffle of listed companies, and the good companies that can stay will go out of the strong and strong trend in the secondary market.
Tong Tongdiyi, general manager of Longying Fuze Asset Management (Beijing) Co., Ltd. believes that the impact of the “epidemic” on traditional industries such as consumption and infrastructure may be very obvious, but the impact on small and medium-sized startups in the technology sector is relativelysmall.
In fact, the recent market trend also seems to confirm his point of view, technology stocks have repaired the short-term plunge since the Spring Festival, and companies continue to hit new highs.
Institutions continue to increase their holdings of GEM technology stocks in the first quarter. For GEM companies, institutional investors or foreign countries have gradually increased their holdings of GEM companies and technology companies as early as the third quarter of 2019.
Judging from the latest quarterly report of public offering funds, the allocation of public offering funds to mainboard companies has been further reduced, from 66 at the end of the third quarter.
6% dropped to 65.
66%, while the configuration of GEM companies is the opposite of the top 12.
93% increased to 14.
In the heavy storage industry, public funds raised their holdings in electronic technology companies in the fourth quarter.
Statistics show that in the fourth quarter of 2019, public offering funds divided a total of 1,420 A-share companies into the top ten heavy positions. Among them, 496 of the top ten heavy positions in public funds in the third quarter continued to gain value in the fourth quarter.Holding, there are 334 companies for the public fund in the fourth quarter of the new top ten stocks.
From the perspective of individual stocks, 165 companies are from GEM, the Ningde era, Mango Super Media, Oriental Fortune, Everlite Li Neng, Songcheng Performing Arts, Taikang Bio, Lepu Medical, Xinwei Communication, Pioneer Intelligence and other entrepreneurshipFor the leading companies of the board, public equity funds at the end of the fourth quarter held an average stock market value of more than 1 billion. Especially in the Ningde era, the fund’s position market value at the end of the fourth quarter has reached 94.
7.1 billion yuan.
For the continued increase of public funds, Yao Hui, an analyst at the Shanghai Securities Fund Evaluation Center, told a reporter from Red Weekly that from the perspective of yield, from the third quarter of 2019, the gains on the GEM index are ahead of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index.In the traditional science and technology sector, the electronics industry index rose in the third and fourth quarters of 2019, ranking first and second in Shenwan’s 28 major industries, respectively.
Since this year, the electronics industry has once again risen to the top of the industry.
From the perspective of market expectations, many technology sectors such as consumer electronics, cloud services, smart equipment, and new energy vehicles have started a new cycle of prosperity. Therefore, no matter from the perspective of actual yield or market expectations, since the second half of 2019,The market style has clearly shifted to the GEM and technology companies.
Regarding the layout of public funds in the first quarter of this year, Yao Hui said that although the sudden outbreak of the epidemic disrupted the market rhythm, the impact of the epidemic has begun to recede, the increase in risk assessment caused by the epidemic has been repaired, and the market has realizedBeyond consensus, the epidemic will only have a short-term impact on the national economy, will not change the expected long-term economic trend, and will not affect the pricing logic of the equity market. Therefore, the strong sector before the epidemic began to return again.The important part is that the market is still optimistic about the growth potential of the technology innovation sector in 2020 and beyond.
On the GEM in the first quarter of this year, technology companies will continue to be allocated by public funds.
Observing the allocation of foreign countries this year, according to the latest data on February 20, a total of 202 GEM companies were held by foreign countries.
Based on three counters on December 31, 2019, January 23, 2020 and the latest February 20, 78 GEM companies have shown a large number of holding positions since the end of last year, on the eve of the Spring Festival this year, and currentlyContinued upward trend.
For example, Aier Ophthalmology, at the end of 2019, foreign countries held a total of their shares3.
6.5 billion shares, on the eve of the Spring Festival this year, the number of shares held rose to 3.
8.3 billion shares, and according to the data on February 20, the latest shareholding has risen to 4.
0.5 billion shares.
Similarly, Wei Ning Health’s total foreign shareholding at the end of last year was only 3,102.
150,000 shares on the eve of the Spring Festival this year and currently, the shareholding has further increased from 3533.
870,000 shares quickly increased to 6,927.
Statistics show that compared with the end of last year, foreign companies have increased their holdings in 15 GEM companies by more than 10,000 shares.
Looking at the property attributes of individual stocks, foreign countries that are war-loving big consumers are obviously optimistic about technology companies this year.
Taking 78 companies that have been continuously increasing foreign holdings as the statistical target since this year, there are at most 16 computer companies, followed by 14 pharmaceutical and biological companies; 10 companies have also appeared in the electronic sector, and only 3 industries haveIt accounted for 51 of the total shareholding 北京夜网 of the company.
If combined with the growth of the company, foreign companies are still very worthwhile for the performance of listed companies. Of the 78 companies that continue to increase their holdings, 53 are expected to increase their net profit in 2019, continue to profit or turn losses into different ways.All increase the company’s share of 67.
For example, Aier Ophthalmology, which has been held by foreign value-added shares since this year, has continued to strengthen its brand influence and its market share has continued to increase. In 2019, it is expected that the net profit will gradually be 30%?
40% growth rate.
GEM companies benefit from the new rules on refinancing. On February 14, three months after the “Refinancing Draft” was released, A-share refinancing officially ushered in loosening. 成都桑拿网 The number of targeted issuances was in the number of issuances, the lock-up period, the number of issuers andBefore the issue price discounts were equalized, the conditions were relaxed before the actual situation. The GEM even lifted restrictions on capital-related asset-liability ratios and profitability.
Anecdotes from Tong Di said that the implementation of new regulations on refinancing integrates the development of emerging industries and the overall economic transformation.
Regarding the market, the refinancing activity will have two effects: one is to inject more financing events into the market, and the other is to intensify market competition at the financing issue end.
“The relaxation of conditions such as the number of issuances, the lock-up period, the number of issuance targets, and the issuance of discounts on the adoption of new regulations will help attract more institutional investors to participate in targeted issuance, thereby accelerating the entry of industrial capital’s medium and long-term funds into the market,Increase the proportion of institutional investors and market activity. ”
”Although it cannot be said that the loosening of refinancing is not harmful to the market, by comparison, the benefits are definitely far greater than the disadvantages.”
Liu Yue believes that the implementation of the refinancing new policy has provided many high-quality companies with the opportunity to make another leap.
He said that the current market style and investor maturity are quite different from those in 2014 and 2015. At that time, the A-share market was funded by speculation and reorganization, speculation and mergers and acquisitions, regardless of the company’s quality, can be melted in the market.When it comes to money, a high amount of goodwill will inevitably be generated.
“After the new regulations on refinancing are introduced, the review of the supervisory level will be more stringent, and it will be difficult for garbage companies to easily get money. As the development of the transfer market and institutional investors become more mature, institutional participation in targeted issuance will be more cautious.