2 trillion!The issuance of special bonds is speeding up again, where is the supernormal quota?

2 trillion!The issuance of special bonds is speeding up again, where is the “supernormal” quota?
As an important means of hedging the impact of the epidemic on the economy, the issuance of special debt this year has once again accelerated.A few days ago, the State Council executive meeting pointed out that at the beginning of the year, local government special debts have been issued1.On the basis of 290 megabytes, another 10,000 megabytes of special bonds were newly added in advance, and we strive to complete the issuance by the end of May.So far, this year has been gradually issued in advance2.The 29 trillion yuan special debt line exceeded last year’s total.From the perspective of capital investment, the special debt funds newly added in 2020 are mainly used in transportation infrastructure, municipal and industrial park infrastructure and other fields.Under the ranking, nearly 70% of the funds in previous years were used for land reserves and shantytown renovation.It is worth mentioning that after the land special debt was suspended for about 7 months, news of the restart of the shed reform special debt came out.Sauna and Yewang confirmed from a person from the local Development and Reform Commission that they recently received a notice to sort out the shantytown renovation projects in preparation for the subsequent issuance of special debts for shed reform.And this is seen as a signal for the recovery of the special debt for shed reform.Sauna and Yewang noticed that the regional issuance quotas of new special debts continued to be differentiated in 2020, and Guangdong, Shandong and Fujian led the issuance.Some people believe that the issuance of special bonds has been accelerated many times, but the cake cannot be made infinitely large, and how to divide the cake needs more attention from all parties.At the beginning of this year, the specific debt limit is currently expected to be 3 in the market.5 trillion to 4 trillion.The debt issuance peak will be ushered in on January 5, and the probability of reaching the quota is unconventional. The State Council executive meeting held on May 6 proposed that local government special debts be issued.On the basis of 290 megabytes, another 10,000 megabytes of special bonds were newly added in advance, and we strive to complete the issuance by the end of May.According to statistics from the official website of the Ministry of Finance, the scale of local special debt issuance from January to March this year was 7,148.21 trillion, 2350 trillion, 1542 trillion.”According to the requirements, the scale of special debt in May may reach 1 trillion, which is the highest single-month issuance in recent years.”A brokerage analyst said.On the whole, the quota issued in advance this year has exceeded 2 in the whole year of last year.15 trillion.The initial special credit limit will have to be announced by the National People’s Congress and the National People’s Congress in the early part of this month. At present, the market generally expects the scale to be 3.5 trillion to 4 trillion.In this regard, Yang Zhiyong, deputy dean of the Institute of Financial Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, accepted the sauna. Yewang said in an interview that it is currently not easy to predict the expected amount, and the high probability is that it is beyond conventional scale.However, he emphasized that if the project could not be landed, the final effect of the special debt was unpredictable.Guangdong, Shandong and Fujian lead the scale of issuance, and the current regional differentiation is based on the issuance scale of the region during the year. According to the statistics of China Securities Pengyuan Credit Rating Co., Ltd., as of April 19, Guangdong, Shandong and Fujian ranked among the issuance scalesThe first three were issued 141.1 billion, 92.8 billion and 63.6 billion respectively.Sichuan has the largest number of issuances, with 61, followed by Guangdong with 55.In addition, the issuance of the top five regions totaled 419.9 billion, accounting for 38%.14%, the total issuance in the last five regions is 139.1.1 billion yuan, accounting for 1.26%.Compared with the 2019 score, the regional concentration of newly issued special bonds will increase in 2020, and the regional issuance quotas will continue to diverge.Yan Xiaowei, an expert in the research and development department of CSI Pengyuan, believes that the issuance of special debt has been accelerated many times, but the cake cannot be infinitely large. How to divide the cake well needs participants’ attention.Under the impact of the epidemic, special debt will be concentrated in economically developed regions in a short period of time, improving the efficiency of issuance and use, leveraging social investment, and stabilizing economic development.However, in the long run, infrastructure, people’s livelihood security and financial resources are generally inadequate in economically underdeveloped regions, and special debt funds are even more needed to support regional development.Yan Xiaowei suggested that regions with special debt increase quotas can focus on the three aspects of local government financial resources, local financing needs and debt management performance to increase the new special debt quotas in the region and make full use of special debt funds to promote regional economic development.The shed reform special creditor’s rights may be restarted. “Supplementing blood to stock projects in the closing year” According to a person from the financial system, the special debt must be profitable in addition to the public welfare, and the principal and interest should cover the principal.1 times.He imitated the name, such as Sichuan tourist attractions have done a good job, after the earthquake in previous years, Sichuan has set up a special debt for Jiuzhaigou recovery and reconstruction, and then rely on tourism proceeds to pay back.Yang Zhiyong told reporters that because the special debt is finally to be repaid, there must be a suitable project, the project has benefits and can cover costs, or there is a hidden risk.But not all projects can pay back.Some people familiar with the matter said that after the National Convention in September last year called off special debt funds for land reserves and real estate and other related fields, in some regions, some seem to invest in special debt in other fields, which still implies disguised land development.Take the return of land listing as the cost of return.Sovereignty, local special debts are very keen to invest in land reserves.The reporter learned from the interview that about 70% of the special debt of more than 2 trillion yuan last year was invested in land reserves, shantytown reconstruction, and construction of affordable housing. Among them, land reserves accounted for more than 30%.Land reserves are the basis for local governments to increase revenue from government funds.However, a few members of the public pointed out that the specific debt did not directly boost infrastructure investment and the real economy.About 7 months after the special land debt was called off, Sauna and Yewang confirmed from a person from the local development and reform commission on May 7 that they had recently reorganized the notification of the shantytown renovation project and made a special debt for the subsequent issuance of shed reform.ready.A brokerage analyst said that 2020 is the final year of the shed reform. Even if the shed reform special debt is restored, it is mainly to “make up blood” for the stock project, so that it will not stop work halfway, and according to the requirements of the Ministry of Finance, add the issuedThe amount of special debt will reflect the needs of epidemic prevention and control and changes in investment fields, and the proportion of investment in infrastructure will increase significantly.Is the release pattern “Tricks” what impact on infrastructure investment?In the past, the high growth of infrastructure investment mainly relied on the expansion of local hidden debt. After standardizing hidden debt, special debt was the “main entrance” to local government financing, but the growth rate of infrastructure investment has not improved much.After the National Convention in September last year halted land-based special debts, new emergency medical treatment facilities, public health facilities, and urban old community renovation projects were added in the issuance category.From the perspective of issuance, the efficiency of newly issued special credit categories has improved, and infrastructure has become a major fundraising project under the new regulations.According to statistics from CSI Pengyuan, as of April 19 this year, 325.9 billion euros of special bonds were invested in infrastructure, followed by comprehensive projects, reaching 242.1 billion US dollars.The scale of the special debt funds invested in toll roads, social undertakings, ecological and environmental protection, and urban and rural development projects was 77.7 billion yuan, 62 billion yuan, 60.3 billion yuan, and 48 billion yuan, respectively.Vice Minister of Finance Xu Hongcai said at the press conference of the State Council Office in early April that the new bundled special debts will reflect the needs of epidemic prevention and control and changes in the investment field. The country ‘s major strategic projects will be listed separately and supported in a key way;In the area of community transformation, local governments are allowed to invest in municipal facilities such as emergency medical treatment, vocational education, and urban heating and gas supply; accelerate the construction of new infrastructure such as 5G networks, data centers, and artificial intelligence.What effect will the special debt have on infrastructure investment?The brokerage said, “Compared with the scale of infrastructure of about US $ 17 trillion last year, the proportion of special debt is not particularly large, and the main funds may have to be financed.A large part of the new infrastructure is market financing. Basically, the government can do infrastructure construction, and some science and technology parks will not be particularly large.”He said that if the increase of another 1 trillion euros of specific debt is mainly invested in infrastructure, the scale-up effect will be some, but it will not be particularly ruthless.”Before the growth rate of infrastructure investment was 3% to 4%, can be pulled to 7%, 8% is almost the same.It is worth mentioning that increasing the scale of special debt is one of the “three axes” of fiscal policy to deal with the epidemic, which also includes raising the fiscal deficit rate and issuing special national debt.According to market estimates, the issuance of special government bonds is over 2 trillion yuan.Sauna, Ye Wang Cheng Weimiao editor Wang Jinyu proofreading Li Shihui