Huayin Electric Power (600744): Electricity prices increased, overlapping hours were used to improve performance
Event: According to the annual report, the company achieved revenue of 95 in 2018.
90,000 yuan, an increase of 30 in ten years.
7%; total profit is 0.
40,000 yuan, an increase of 103 in ten years.
8%; net profit attributable to mother 0.
60,000 yuan, an increase of 105 in ten years.
1%; net profit after deduction is -2.
60,000 yuan, an increase of 78 in ten years.
3%, EPS is 0.
03 yuan / share, performance turned losses into profits, in line with expectations.
The increase in electricity prices supplements the increase in utilization hours, helping to turn the results back to profitability: According to the announcement, the company achieved 239 in 2018.
0天津夜网 billion kWh, an increase of 22 in ten years.
3%; online power 221.
800 million kWh, an annual increase of 22.
4%; On-grid tariffs (including tax) increase by 8 per year.
0 yuan / MWh.
At the same time, the company recognized an asset impairment loss of -484 in 2018.
0 million yuan, a decrease of 101 a year.
3%; recognition of investment income of 0.
600 million, an increase of 160 each year.
In terms of utilization hours, the company utilized 4,217 hours in 2018, an increase of 746 hours per year.
The increase in electricity prices and the increase in utilization hours will jointly drive the company’s performance back to profitability.
Hunan thermal power installed leader, the company’s unit is located in Hunan power load center: the company as the leading thermal power installed enterprises in 杭州夜网论坛 Hunan Province, thermal power installed market share in the province.
3%, in dominant territory.
According to the announcement, as of the end of 2018, the company’s installed capacity was 569.
0 million kilowatts, including thermal power 524.
0 million kilowatts, hydropower 17.
60,000 kilowatts, 27 new energy sources.
The company’s subordinate power plants are reasonably distributed. Among them, Xiangtan and Zhuzhou Power Plants are located in the Changzhutan load center area, and Liyang Power Plant is located in the South Hunan Load Center area, which is conducive to the company’s planned power generation.
Due to the lack of coal resources in Hunan Province and changes in the market for coal production and reduction in the province, coal combustion is mainly from long-distance transportation from other provinces, fuel costs remain high, and business performance is highly resilient to coal prices.
With the expected improvement in the national coal supply and demand in 2019, the company is expected to fully benefit from the decline in coal prices.
The Menghua Railway is expected to be completed and opened to traffic in the second half of 2019. It is expected that the coal freight will be reduced by 30-50 yuan / ton: The Menghua Railway serves as a national strategic transportation channel for North-South coal transportation, connecting the “Golden Triangle” of Mongolia-Shanxi-Gansu-Nanjing Energy and Hubei, Hunan and JiangxiIn Central China, the total mileage is 1815 kilometers, and the designed capacity is 200 million tons / year, of which the initial capacity is 0.
0 billion tons, is expected to open to traffic in the second half of 2019.
According to the feasibility study report of the Menghua Railway, the comprehensive coal freight rate was supplemented.
18 yuan / (ton / km), which is less than the national railway coal freight rate.1551 yuan / (ton / km) is slightly higher, but because of the distance advantage of the Menghua Railway over the existing transportation lines, it is expected that the freight will be reduced by 30-50 yuan / ton.
Coal supply-side reforms have led to further reductions in coal production capacity in central China, and the proportion of transfers from external provinces has increased. Hunan ‘s coal price index exceeds the national average.
The commissioning of the Menghua Railway will help solve the double problem of “high procurement costs and high transportation costs” in central China.
Investment suggestion: Overweight-A investment rating, 6-month target price of 4 yuan.
We expect the company’s revenue growth to be 15%, 7%, and 6% in 2019-2021, and the net profit will be 1.
4.1 billion, 2.
9.2 billion, 3.
8.5 billion, corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of 44.
6 times, 21.
5 times and 16.
Risk warning: coal prices continue to be high, risks of lowering electricity prices, and the advancement of wind power projects is less than expected.