BYD (002594): Short-term economic outlook is still at the bottom, supply chain value is expected to be revalued

BYD (002594): Short-term economic outlook is still at the bottom, supply chain value is expected to be revalued

The company’s new energy vehicles sold 0 in January 2020.

710,000 vehicles, at least -75.

1% is mainly due to the industry’s prosperity, and this year’s Spring Festival holiday in January, last year’s Spring Festival in February.

With the short-term epidemic and the downturn in the industry, it is expected that it will still be under pressure in the first half of the year.

As the company’s neutralization strategy accelerates its implementation, it will develop towards “full vehicle brands” + “new energy vehicle solution providers”, and the value of the supply chain will become apparent, which is expected to usher in a revaluation of value.

Continue to recommend and maintain “Buy” rating.

Event: On February 10, the company released a report on car sales in January 2020, and the company’s car sales in January 2.

50,000, at least -42.

7%, -41.

7% of which new energy vehicles 0.

710,000 vehicles, at least -75.

1%, -45.

5%, fuel car 1.

80,000 vehicles, +18 a year.

3%, -39.

8%.

This time, we comment as follows: monthly sales of new energy vehicles 0.

710,000 vehicles, at least -75.

At 1%, the economy is still low.

Company car sales in January 2.

50,000, at least -42.

7%, -41.

7% of which new energy vehicles 0.

710,000 vehicles, at least -75.

1%, -45.

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5%.

The sales of electric vehicles decreased significantly, mainly due to the decline in the industry’s business climate. The Spring Festival holiday in January this year, the impact of the Spring Festival in February last year, and the high business climate in January of last year brought a high base.

For fuel vehicles, sales were 1 in January.

800,000 vehicles, +18 per year.

3%, mainly because the Song Pro fuel version has been on the market.

The first quarter is still at the bottom of the economy, and it is expected to bottom out in the second half of the year.

By type, the company sold 0 pure electric passenger cars in January.

510,000 vehicles, at least -68.

3%; January sales of hybrid passenger cars were 0.

190,000, at least -84.

1%, due to the high base of the new model cycle in the same period last 成都桑拿网 year.

Looking forward to 2020, the company’s new passenger car model “Han” will be launched soon. Tang, Qin, Song and other dynasties will be modified, and the speed cycle will remain stable.

The company sold 113 new energy commercial vehicles in January, two years to -82.9%, taking into account the factors such as the delayed resumption of the epidemic in February, and February is the off-season for traditional passenger car sales.

The average value of the industry boom is higher in the same period last year. We expect the industry’s low economy to continue in the first half of 2020.

LFP blade batteries will be installed this year, and the intrinsic value needs to be reflected by external suppliers.

In terms of power batteries, the company installed 0 batteries in January.

366GWh, -76 per year.

4%, -45.

1%.

According to the company’s plan, in 2020, the company’s LFP blade batteries will first be installed on the “Han” model and then promote cost advantages to other models.

The company’s power battery technology and products are at the global leading level, but it is limited to internal supply. The internal value is difficult to reflect.

The company’s power battery has gradually entered the Toyota supply chain, and Audi is also expected to purchase BYD batteries.

At first glance, we expect that the company is expected to realize support for overseas vehicle giants in 2021, and the value will be prominent.

The favorable policy environment is favorable, and the company actively cuts costs and increases profits.

In 2019, the decline in compensation caused the industry’s profitability to decline. From January 10th to 12th, 2020, a hundred people in China’s electric vehicles will release a lot of positive signals in the industry.Wait.
We expect the new financial subsidy policy for electric vehicles to finally come to fruition in the first two quarters.

At the same time, the company actively adopts cost reduction measures: the company plans to launch new intermix DM4 technology at the end of 2020, and is committed to further reducing costs on the basis of further improvement in performance and integration; 2020H2 launches a new generation of LFP “blade batteries” to promote improvementMore than 30% volume specific energy density and reduce battery pack cost by about 30%, consolidating long-term cost competitive advantage.

Risk factors: The company’s new energy vehicle production and sales are less than expected; changes in new energy vehicle policies; cloud rail advancement is less than expected.

Investment suggestion: Maintain the net profit return to mothers for 2019-202116.

7/19.

5/40.

0 million yuan, the current price of A shares is 60.

93 yuan, corresponding to 100/85/42 times PE in 2019/20/21; H-share price is 47.

0 combustion, corresponding to 19/20/21 69/59/29 times PE.

With the acceleration of the company’s neutralization strategy and the development of the “full vehicle brand” + “new energy vehicle solution provider”, the value of the supply chain will gradually advance.

The company is the leader of China’s electric vehicle industry. It has independent and controllable electrification technology. It has steadily advanced through the neutralization strategy of the supply chain and increased long-term value.

The current market capitalization has a high safety margin, continue to recommend, and maintain the company (A + H shares) “Buy” rating